Louisiana Senate Runoff
A WPA poll of n=500 likely runoff voters conducted November 24-25, 2014 on behalf of Independent Women's Voice shows that Bill Cassidy is solidly ahead of Mary Landrieu even if she manages to substantially increase African American turnout.
• Bill Cassidy has a 24 point lead over Mary Landrieu on the U.S. Senate ballot.
o Cassidy has the lead among all gender age groups and has a large lead among Independent voters.
• Even record-high African American turnout won’t be enough to make this a close race.
o African Americans would need to make up 37% of the electorate (and vote for Landrieu 95% to five percent) in order bring the race within six points.
o That would be a huge increase above the 2008 Presidential election (29% of voters were African Americans) and even exceed the percentage that African Americans make up of citizens of voting age (31%).
• There is some evidence that Landrieu’s campaign is succeeding in narrowing the gap, but not enough to win.
o Voters who have seen Landrieu’s “not cool” ad are only supporting Cassidy by a ten-point margin (50% Cassidy versus 40% Landrieu).
WPA Opinion Research conducted a statewide study of likely runoff voters. Respondents were screened to ensure that they were not a member of the news media, a public relations company, or a political campaign. The sample for this survey was stratified based on gender, age, ethnicity, and geography. This methodology allows us to minimize post-survey “weighting” which can reduce the reliability of survey results. Respondents were contacted by phone via a live telephone operator interview November 24-25, 2014. Twenty-five percent of the interviews were conducted to cell phones. The study has a sample size of 500 and a margin of error equal to +4.4%.
VIEW 12/1 POLLING MEMO
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